Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Matt ChapmanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching3.1 IP, 9 ER, 0 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Merrifield singled to right, Chapman scored.4–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 4Burleson doubled to center, Edman scored.3–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 4Donovan hit sacrifice fly to center, Carlson scored, Edman to third.3–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 3Gorman homered to right center (395 feet), Arenado scored.3–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 3Arenado singled to left, Burleson scored.3–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 2Jansen singled to right, Chapman scored.3–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 2Merrifield hit sacrifice fly to center, Kirk scored, Chapman to third.2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Chapman doubled to left, Varsho scored, Kirk to third.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Gorman homered to right center (446 feet), Contreras scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Burleson homered to left (363 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Donovan homered to right center (396 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | TOR: Chris Bassitt (no track record yet) · STL: Jordan Montgomery (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +20 Elo | STL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 6.56th of 30 |
| 25th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 5.523rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–17th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Blue Jays: last 2
Cardinals: last 2
Head to head
TOR 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.