Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-4
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4d'Arnaud singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1García hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored, Ruiz to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Call walked, Candelario scored, Ruiz to second, Smith to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 40–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Ruiz walked, Meneses scored, Smith to second, Candelario to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 40–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Smith singled to left, Thomas scored, Candelario to second, Meneses to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -108
- ATL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ATL: Jared Shuster (no track record yet) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 307.0 | Runs scored | 1.526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301.5 | Runs allowed | 7.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+5.5 | Margin | −5.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 152–0 | Road vs home | 0–214th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Braves: last 2
Nationals: last 2
Head to head
ATL 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.