Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Goldschmidt homered to left center (398 feet).8–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 38–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7d'Arnaud doubled to right, Olson scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Olson singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 36–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Donovan grounded out to second, O'Neill scored, Walker to second.6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Walker singled to center, Gorman scored, O'Neill to third.6–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 2Acuña Jr. homered to center, Rosario scored and Arcia scored.6–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Albies homered to right (370 feet), Harris II scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Arenado grounded into fielder's choice to second, Burleson scored, Goldschmidt out at second.1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -111
- ATL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ATL: Charlie Morton (no track record yet) · STL: Jake Woodford (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +18 Elo | STL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 7.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 302.3 | Runs allowed | 5.020th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +2.39th of 30 |
| 4th of 172–1 | Road vs home | 2–16th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.