Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan DoddPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Contreras singled to right, Carlson scored, Contreras out stretching at second, Goldschmidt to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Murphy singled to left, d'Arnaud scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Arcia homered to left (366 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Riley homered to left center (410 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ATL: Dylan Dodd (no track record yet) · STL: Steven Matz (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +12 Elo | STL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 6.56th of 30 |
| 7th of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 5.822nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +0.811th of 30 |
| 4th of 173–1 | Road vs home | 2–27th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.