New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Luis GuillormeBatting2-4
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Turang homered to right center (417 feet), Tellez scored, Mitchell scored and Anderson scored.0–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Anderson singled to right, Adames scored, Mitchell to second, Tellez to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Contreras grounded out to second, Winker scored, Tellez to second, Adames to third.0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Adames singled to left, Yelich scored, Winker to second.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Anderson homered to center (421 feet), Mitchell scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Winker singled to left, Turang scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- NYM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | NYM: Carlos Carrasco (no track record yet) · MIL: Freddy Peralta (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +14 Elo | MIL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.015th of 30 |
| 5th of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 3.310th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.