New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso homered to right center (377 feet).1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right (411 feet).0–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Soler homered to center (407 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -110
- NYM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | NYM: David Peterson (no track record yet) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +15 Elo | MIA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.016th of 30 |
| 13th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 5.019th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.021st of 30 |
| 1st of 151–0 | Road vs home | 0–18th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Mets: last 1
Marlins: last 1
Head to head
NYM 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.