MLB games
Updated
New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Nimmo doubled to center, Narváez scored and Escobar scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Cooper homered to center (422 feet), Arráez scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Arráez doubled to right, Stallings scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6McNeil singled to center, Marte scored, Alonso to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Lindor hit sacrifice fly to center, Nimmo scored, Marte to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Nimmo sacrificed into double play, left to catcher to second to first, Vogelbach scored, Narváez thrown out at second.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Toss-upMiss
NYM 47%MIA 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Fair odds
- MIA -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | NYM: Max Scherzer (no track record yet) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +18 Elo | MIA 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
MetsMarlins
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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