New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Tommy PhamBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-4
- Trevor RogersPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pham doubled to left, Locastro scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pham homered to center (433 feet), Locastro scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Soler doubled to right, Arráez scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1McNeil reached on infield single to pitcher, Alonso scored on throwing error by pitcher Rogers and Lindor scored, Canha safe at third on error.2–0
- 1McNeil reached on infield single to pitcher, Alonso scored on throwing error by pitcher Rogers and Lindor scored, Canha safe at third on error.2–0
- 1McNeil reached on infield single to pitcher, Alonso scored on throwing error by pitcher Rogers and Lindor scored, Canha safe at third on error.2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | NYM: Kodai Senga (no track record yet) · MIA: Trevor Rogers (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +11 Elo | MIA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 302.3 | Runs allowed | 4.016th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–211th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–1 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.