New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark CanhaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Nick FortesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte hit a ground rule double, Alonso scored, Pham to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 7Canha homered to left center (403 feet).5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Canha singled to right, Alonso scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Alonso doubled to left, McNeil scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Narváez singled to left, Canha scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Fortes homered to left (422 feet), Sánchez scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Narváez hit sacrifice fly to right, Canha scored, Guillorme to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | NYM: Tylor Megill (no track record yet) · MIA: Edward Cabrera (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +16 Elo | MIA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 2.521st of 30 |
| 9th of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 3.011th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.516th of 30 |
| 6th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–14th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Mets: last 2
Marlins: last 2
Head to head
NYM 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.