Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jesse WinkerBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to second, Happ scored, Mancini out at second.9–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 39–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 8Gomes hit sacrifice fly to right, Swanson scored, Happ to third.9–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 7Wisdom homered to left center (385 feet).9–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 39–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 29–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 7Winker hit sacrifice fly to center, Turang scored.9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 6Mitchell singled to center, Adames scored, Tellez to third.8–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 6Anderson hit sacrifice fly to center, Winker scored, Adames to third.7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Adames singled to center, Yelich scored, Winker to second.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Winker singled to center, Turang scored and Wiemer scored, Yelich to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Mitchell tripled to right, Anderson scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Yelich scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Fair odds
- CHC -111
- MIL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | MIL: Eric Lauer (no track record yet) · CHC: Jameson Taillon (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +19 Elo | CHC 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 301.5 | Runs scored | 2.521st of 30 |
| 10th of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 1.53rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.014th of 30 |
| 6th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–18th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Brewers: last 2
Cubs: last 2
Head to head
MIL 1–1 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.