Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras singled to right, Mitchell scored and Turang scored, Adames to third.3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 8Winker singled to center, Anderson scored, Mitchell to third.1–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Happ homered to right center (374 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 30–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Fair odds
- CHC -112
- MIL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | MIL: Brandon Woodruff (no track record yet) · CHC: Justin Steele (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +23 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 300.0 | Runs scored | 4.014th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 0.01st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−4.0 | Margin | +4.03rd of 30 |
| 11th of 150–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Brewers: last 1
Cubs: last 1
Head to head
MIL 0–1 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.