MLB games
Updated
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-3
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Gomes grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Happ scored, Mancini to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Mancini singled to left, Swanson scored, Happ to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Swanson singled to right, Mastrobuoni scored on error and Hoerner scored on throwing error by shortstop Adames.0–2
- 3Swanson singled to right, Mastrobuoni scored on error and Hoerner scored on throwing error by shortstop Adames.0–2
- 3Swanson singled to right, Mastrobuoni scored on error and Hoerner scored on throwing error by shortstop Adames.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Toss-upHit
MIL 47%CHC 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Fair odds
- CHC -111
- MIL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | MIL: Corbin Burnes (no track record yet) · CHC: Marcus Stroman (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +18 Elo | CHC 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
BrewersCubs
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.