St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Adames homered to right center (402 feet).0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 6Yelich grounded out to first, Anderson scored, Wiemer to second, Turang to third.0–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Mitchell singled to left, Adames scored, Contreras to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Tellez hit sacrifice fly to left, Yelich scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -115
- STL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.5 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +16 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +29 Elo | MIL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 6.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 2.74th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +3.73rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.