New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Joey WiemerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mitchell homered to right center (387 feet).6–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 36–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5Winker doubled to right, Voit scored and Yelich scored.6–6
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 36–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 5Alonso homered to center (424 feet), Lindor scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3Alonso homered to right center (397 feet), Lindor scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Lindor singled to right, Marte scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Wiemer homered to right center (385 feet), Winker scored and Miller scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Miller singled to left, Anderson scored, Winker to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Lindor doubled to left, Marte scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -113
- NYM +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +8 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +24 Elo | MIL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 6.24th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 2.02nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.7 | Margin | +4.22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 173–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.