New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting3-4
- Max ScherzerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Brian AndersonBatting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mitchell homered to right (369 feet).0–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 7Anderson homered to center (408 feet), Yelich scored and Adames scored.0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 6Mitchell homered to right (362 feet).0–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 6Anderson homered to center (414 feet).0–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Tellez homered to right center (422 feet).0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Anderson doubled to left, Adames scored and Yelich scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 51%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- NYM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | — | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +10 Elo | MIL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.511th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 2.56th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +3.06th of 30 |
| 7th of 173–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.