St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Brewers- Mike BrosseauBatting1-4
- Eric LauerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Walker homered to left center (381 feet), O'Neill scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Arenado homered to left (394 feet), Goldschmidt scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Contreras singled to right, Carlson scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -116
- STL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.5 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +31 Elo | MIL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 6.03rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 2.32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.0 | Margin | +3.72nd of 30 |
| 25th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.