Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching3.1 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thompson singled to left, Smith scored.6–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–11
- 8Vargas tripled to right, Martinez scored.5–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 8Martinez doubled to center, Thompson scored.4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–11
- 5Walker walked, Herrera scored, Smith to second, Perdomo to third.3–11
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 43–11
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 5Perdomo singled to right, Ahmed scored, Herrera to third.3–10
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 4McCarthy singled to left, Smith scored.3–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 4Smith doubled to right, Perdomo scored and Rojas scored.3–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 3Ahmed singled to left, McCarthy scored and Thomas scored.3–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Thomas singled to right, Walker scored, McCarthy to third.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Martinez scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Martinez tripled to left, Freeman scored.2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -110
- LAD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +11 Elo | ARI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.3 | Margin | −0.922nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–13rd of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–4 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.