Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Evan LongoriaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Madison BumgarnerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moreno doubled to right, Ahmed scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 8Ahmed reached on infield single to third, Longoria scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Carroll homered to right center (432 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Longoria homered to left (398 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Taylor homered to left center (416 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Carroll reached on infield single to second, Gurriel Jr. scored, Longoria to second.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Outman homered to right center (416 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. grounded out to first, Marte scored, Lewis to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Martinez hit sacrifice fly to right, Betts scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- LAD +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −11 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Madison Bumgarner: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +22 Elo | LAD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 3.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.1 | Runs allowed | 5.120th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+4.0 | Margin | −2.125th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–2 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.