Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith singled to center, Freeman scored.8–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–12
- 8Heyward homered to right (389 feet).7–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–12
- 7Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Rojas scored, Gurriel Jr. thrown out at second, Marte to third.6–12
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–11
- 7Rojas singled to center, Perdomo scored.6–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–11
- 7Perdomo doubled to right, Thomas scored.6–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 6Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.6–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Gurriel Jr. tripled to center, Marte scored.6–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–8
- 6Freeman doubled to right, Betts scored.6–7
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 25–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–7
- 5Thomas singled to right, Carroll scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 25–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 4Betts walked, Martinez scored, Taylor to second, Heyward to third.5–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 45–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -110
- LAD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +16 | LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +13 Elo | ARI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.424th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 4.919th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+3.1 | Margin | −1.523rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–3 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.