Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Garrett HampsonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arraez singled to center, Segura scored, Arraez thrown out at second, Fortes to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Segura singled to right, García scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Moreno singled to center, Carroll scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Hampson homered to left (366 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Walker hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -110
- ARI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +17 Elo | MIA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.918th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.