Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Cooper scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Alonso singled to center, Guillorme scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Cooper homered to left (404 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Chisholm Jr. singled to left, Berti scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Álvarez singled to right, Canha scored, McNeil to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1De La Cruz homered to left center (388 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored and Arráez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Fair odds
- NYM -113
- MIA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −15 | MIA: Braxton Garrett (no track record yet) · NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +19 Elo | NYM 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.2 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–5 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.