Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Farmer scored, Jeffers to second on passed ball by Fortes.2–5
- 9Farmer scored, Jeffers to second on passed ball by Fortes.2–5
- 8Soler homered to left (399 feet), Berti scored and De La Cruz scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 8De La Cruz singled to center, Segura scored, De La Cruz to second, Berti to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Larnach singled to left, Jeffers scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Soler homered to left center (409 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Fair odds
- MIA -107
- MIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +16 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +2 Elo | MIN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 1.730th of 30 |
| 1st of 301.2 | Runs allowed | 4.714th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −3.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 174–1 | Road vs home | 2–411th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.