Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jeff LindgrenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers homered to left center (417 feet).11–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 211–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 7Larnach homered to center (410 feet), Correa scored.10–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Arráez singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Stallings to second.8–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 4Correa doubled to left, Farmer scored and Vázquez scored.8–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Miranda singled to left, Larnach scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Larnach tripled to right, Buxton scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Gallo homered to right (399 feet), Miranda scored and Gordon scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Kepler homered to right center (411 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -108
- MIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | MIN: Tyler Mahle (no track record yet) · MIA: Johnny Cueto (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +7 Elo | MIA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 2.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301.3 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −2.323rd of 30 |
| 1st of 153–0 | Road vs home | 1–314th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.