Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4
- Jordan LylesPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Farmer hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Miranda singled to center, Buxton scored, Larnach to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -110
- MIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | MIN: Sonny Gray (no track record yet) · KC: Jordan Lyles (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +15 Elo | KC 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 302.0 | Runs scored | 0.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 300.0 | Runs allowed | 2.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.024th of 30 |
| 1st of 151–0 | Road vs home | 0–111th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Twins: last 1
Royals: last 1
Head to head
MIN 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.