MLB games
Updated
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4
- Zack GreinkePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Solano singled to left, Larnach scored, Farmer to second.2–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6Larnach singled to center, Buxton scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 53%
Toss-upMiss
MIN 47%KC 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Fair odds
- KC -111
- MIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.5 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | MIN: Pablo Lopez (no track record yet) · KC: Zack Greinke (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +18 Elo | KC 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
TwinsRoyals
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.