Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Joey GalloBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brad KellerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olivares singled to center, Massey scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Larnach singled to right, Correa scored, Buxton to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Duffy homered to left center (430 feet), Bradley Jr. scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Gallo homered to right (415 feet), Larnach scored and Farmer scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Gallo homered to right center (431 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Jeffers singled to center, Gallo scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Olivares homered to left center (421 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Jeffers singled to right, Miranda scored, Gallo to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | MIN: Joe Ryan (no track record yet) · KC: Brad Keller (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +11 Elo | KC 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 302.0 | Runs scored | 0.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 300.0 | Runs allowed | 2.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.023rd of 30 |
| 1st of 152–0 | Road vs home | 0–215th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Twins: last 2
Royals: last 2
Head to head
MIN 2–0 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.