Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso homered to center (403 feet).3–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 8Lindor homered to left (400 feet), Nimmo scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Cooper homered to center (406 feet), Arráez scored and Soler scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 30–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 7Nido sacrificed into double play, left to second, Canha scored, Escobar thrown out at second.0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Escobar grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McNeil scored, Pham out at second, Canha to third.0–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Marte homered to left center (419 feet).0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Alonso singled to left, Nido scored, Alonso to second, Nimmo to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Vogelbach reached on infield single to second, Marte scored, Canha to second, Lindor to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Canha walked, Nimmo scored, Lindor to second, Marte to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Fair odds
- NYM -113
- MIA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +11 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +34 Elo | NYM 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.1 | Runs scored | 3.323rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.917th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −1.622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–3 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.