Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arráez singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Cooper to second, Berti to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Escobar homered to left center (371 feet), McNeil scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Chisholm Jr. homered to right (391 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Alonso homered to left center (408 feet), Lindor scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1McNeil walked, Nimmo scored, Canha to second, Alonso to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +13 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +38 Elo | NYM 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.3 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.614th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–4 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.