Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drey JamesonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carroll homered to left center (404 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Yelich singled to left, Turang scored and Wiemer scored, Brosseau to second.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 7Brosseau singled to center, Voit scored, Wiemer to second, Turang to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Rojas doubled to center, Perdomo scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Gurriel Jr. homered to left (370 feet), Rojas scored and Marte scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Walker grounded out to second, Rojas scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | MIL: Janson Junk (no track record yet) · ARI: Drey Jameson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +10 Elo | ARI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 5.018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.5 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 8th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 4–25th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.