Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Mike BrosseauBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith singled to right, Marte scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 9Brosseau homered to right center (399 feet).7–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 8Tellez homered to right (365 feet).6–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Brosseau doubled to left, Caratini scored and Mitchell scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7Wiemer grounded out to second, Anderson scored, Caratini to second, Mitchell to third.3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 7Caratini walked, Tellez scored, Mitchell to second, Anderson to third.2–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 42–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 7Adames homered to center (416 feet).1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Fair odds
- ARI -111
- MIL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +15 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +26 Elo | ARI 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.813th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 4.814th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.