Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4
- Madison BumgarnerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Jon BertiBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Moreno grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Longoria scored, Carroll out at third.1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Cooper singled to center, Berti scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Berti doubled to left, Hampson scored and Stallings scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Hampson doubled to left, Segura scored, Stallings to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Stallings singled to center, García scored, Segura to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | ARI: Madison Bumgarner: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +11 Elo | MIA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.222nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.028th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.