Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10De La Cruz singled to right, Fortes scored, De La Cruz out stretching at second.3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Soler homered to center (417 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Stott doubled to right, Clemens scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Marsh singled to right, Castellanos scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4De La Cruz singled to right, Arraez scored, De La Cruz to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- MIA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −10 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +23 Elo | PHI 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.521st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.726th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −1.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.