Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Connor OvertonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fraley doubled to right, Fairchild scored, Friedl scored and India scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 8Vosler doubled to right, Myers scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Bohm homered to left (398 feet), Stott scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Vosler grounded out to second, Stephenson scored, Myers to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Stephenson singled to center, Friedl scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Sosa reached on infield single to shortstop, Stott scored, Marsh to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Castellanos doubled to left, Schwarber scored, Castellanos thrown out at home.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | CIN: Connor Overton: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +14 Elo | PHI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.826th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | −2.527th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.