Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Reds- Jason VoslerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Connor OvertonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Vosler homered to left center (376 feet), Stephenson scored and Fairchild scored.6–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5Hosmer doubled to right, Happ scored and Wisdom scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5Mancini grounded out to second, Swanson scored, Happ to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 2India grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Vosler scored, Friedl out at third.3–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 1Newman singled to center, Myers scored and Steer scored, Stephenson to second.3–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 1Myers singled to center, India scored, Steer to second.3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Bellinger homered to right (384 feet), Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Fair odds
- CIN -112
- CHC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CHC: Drew Smyly (no track record yet) · CIN: Connor Overton (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +23 Elo | CIN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 2.78th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.