Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Rich HillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Reds- Kevin NewmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Fraley homered to right (349 feet), Myers scored and Stephenson scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 3Cruz singled to right, Santana scored, Joe to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Newman homered to left (405 feet), Stephenson scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1India homered to left center (382 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Joe singled to center, McCutchen scored, Santana to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Fair odds
- CIN -110
- PIT +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | PIT: Rich Hill (no track record yet) · CIN: Nick Lodolo (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +16 Elo | CIN 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.015th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.020th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 151–0 | Road vs home | 0–111th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Pirates: last 1
Reds: last 1
Head to head
PIT 1–0 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.