MLB games
Updated
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cruz hit sacrifice fly to left, Bae scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Vosler tripled to right, India scored and Fraley scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Steer homered to left center (435 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Cruz scored on Cruz wild pitch, McCutchen to second on wild pitch by Cruz, Reynolds to third on wild pitch by Cruz.4–1
- 4Cruz scored on Cruz wild pitch, McCutchen to second on wild pitch by Cruz, Reynolds to third on wild pitch by Cruz.4–1
- 4McCutchen walked, Hedges scored, Reynolds to second, Cruz to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 43–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Reynolds walked, Bae scored, Cruz to second, Hedges to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 42–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Cruz homered to right center (425 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Toss-upMiss
PIT 47%CIN 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Fair odds
- CIN -111
- PIT +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | PIT: Mitch Keller (no track record yet) · CIN: Hunter Greene (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +18 Elo | CIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
PiratesReds
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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