Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Vince VelasquezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Friedl homered to right center (392 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Reynolds homered to center (410 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Stephenson reached on infield single to shortstop, India scored, Fraley to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Vosler homered to right (365 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Fair odds
- CIN -111
- PIT +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | PIT: Vince Velasquez (no track record yet) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +20 Elo | CIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.010th of 30 |
| 18th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.59th of 30 |
| 6th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–17th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Pirates: last 2
Reds: last 2
Head to head
PIT 1–1 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.