Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting3-4
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Trevino singled to center, F. Cordero scored.1–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 5F. Cordero doubled to center, Torres scored and Stanton scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Rizzo homered to right (387 feet), LeMahieu scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Sosa singled to left, Bohm scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Torres homered to right center (361 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Torres reached on infield single to pitcher, Judge scored, Rizzo to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Stanton grounded out to shortstop, LeMahieu scored, Rizzo to second, Judge to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- PHI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | PHI: Taijuan Walker (no track record yet) · NYY: Nestor Cortes (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +28 Elo | NYY 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.39th of 30 |
| 30th of 309.7 | Runs allowed | 2.35th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−6.0 | Margin | +3.07th of 30 |
| 14th of 160–3 | Road vs home | 2–15th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Phillies: last 3