MLB games
Updated
Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Robbie GrossmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hall grounded out to second, Realmuto scored.7–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–11
- 5Miller homered to left center (407 feet), Heim scored.6–11
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–11
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 36–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 5Bohm singled to center, Castellanos scored, Stott to third.6–9
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–9
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 15–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–9
- 4García singled to right, Seager scored and Lowe scored, García out stretching at second.5–9
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–9
- 4Semien scored, Lowe to second on passed ball by Realmuto, Seager to third on passed ball by Realmuto.5–7
- 4Semien scored, Lowe to second on passed ball by Realmuto, Seager to third on passed ball by Realmuto.5–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 4Lowe reached on infield single to pitcher, J. Smith scored, Seager to second, Semien to third.5–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 4Grossman homered to right center (396 feet), Jung scored and Heim scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Heim doubled to right, Seager scored and García scored, Jung to third.5–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Toss-upHit
PHI 47%TEX 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | PHI: Aaron Nola (no track record yet) · TEX: Jacob deGrom (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +18 Elo | TEX 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
PhilliesRangers
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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