San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting1-3
- Ross StriplingPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torres scored on Hjelle wild pitch, Stanton to second on wild pitch by Hjelle.0–6
- 7Torres scored on Hjelle wild pitch, Stanton to second on wild pitch by Hjelle.0–6
- 7Rizzo hit sacrifice fly to center, Volpe scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Higashioka homered to left (381 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Stanton homered to center (485 feet), Rizzo scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Judge homered to left center (392 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- SF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | SF: Ross Stripling (no track record yet) · NYY: Jhony Brito (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +20 Elo | NYY 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.010th of 30 |
| 18th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.58th of 30 |
| 6th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–15th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Giants: last 2
Yankees: last 2
Head to head
SF 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.