MLB games
Updated
San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-4
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 12 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Judge singled to center, Trevino scored, LeMahieu to third.0–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 7LeMahieu singled to left, Torres scored, Trevino to second.0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Torres homered to right center (378 feet), Donaldson scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Judge homered to center (422 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Toss-upHit
SF 47%NYY 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- SF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | SF: Logan Webb (no track record yet) · NYY: Gerrit Cole (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +18 Elo | NYY 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
GiantsYankees
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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