San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Brandon CrawfordBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge singled to left, Volpe scored, LeMahieu to second.7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Crawford singled to left, Yastrzemski scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 9Yastrzemski doubled to center, Pederson scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Donaldson homered to left (380 feet).5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Estrada reached on infield single to shortstop, Crawford scored, Wade Jr. to second, Sabol to third.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Wade Jr. reached on infield single to catcher, Villar scored, Sabol to second, Crawford to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Rizzo doubled to right, LeMahieu scored, Judge to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Crawford homered to right center (415 feet), Yastrzemski scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pederson homered to right center (404 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Stanton homered to right (370 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Fair odds
- NYY -112
- SF +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | SF: Alex Cobb (no track record yet) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +23 Elo | NYY 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 300.0 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 0.01st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−5.0 | Margin | +5.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 150–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Giants: last 1
Yankees: last 1
Head to head
SF 0–1 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.