Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jankowski singled to left, J. Smith scored, Lowe to second, Seager to third.3–16
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–16
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–16
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–16
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–16
- 8Lowe singled to right, Garver scored, Seager to second, J. Smith to third.3–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–15
- 8Semien hit sacrifice fly to right, Thompson scored, Garver to third.3–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–14
- 7García singled to left, Semien scored.3–13
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–12
- 7Lowe grounded out to shortstop, J. Smith scored, Semien to third.3–12
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–12
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 33–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–11
- 7Seager hit sacrifice fly to left, Miller scored, Semien to second, J. Smith to third.3–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–11
- 7Garver homered to left (408 feet), Jung scored and Grossman scored.3–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Garver homered to left (381 feet), García scored and Jung scored.3–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -112
- PHI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | PHI: Zack Wheeler (no track record yet) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 307.0 | Runs scored | 11.01st of 30 |
| 30th of 3011.0 | Runs allowed | 7.026th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−4.0 | Margin | +4.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 150–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Phillies: last 1
Rangers: last 1
Head to head
PHI 0–1 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.