Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa homered to left center (394 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Realmuto homered to left center (448 feet), Turner scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Stephenson doubled to left, Friedl scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Schwarber doubled to right, Turner scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Barrero singled to center, Steer scored, Benson to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Marsh walked, Castellanos scored, Clemens to second, Cave to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 40–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 47%
- Fair odds
- PHI -105
- CIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.6 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −25 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 1.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +22 Elo | CIN 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.025th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 7.030th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −4.030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.