Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Jose TrevinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber homered to right (365 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Trevino homered to left (351 feet), Cabrera scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Cave hit sacrifice fly to left, Castellanos scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Torres singled to center, LeMahieu scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Torres singled to left, Judge scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Fair odds
- NYY -117
- PHI +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +20 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +61 Elo | NYY 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.012th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.6 | Runs allowed | 2.45th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.4 | Margin | +2.66th of 30 |
| 17th of 171–4 | Road vs home | 3–24th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.