Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt StrahmPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9LeMahieu homered to right center (384 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Schwarber singled to right, Stubbs scored, Turner to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Turner singled to right, Marsh scored, Stubbs to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Marsh homered to center (436 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (415 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -115
- PHI +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | PHI: Matt Strahm (no track record yet) · NYY: Domingo German (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +34 Elo | NYY 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 6.08th of 30 |
| 30th of 309.3 | Runs allowed | 2.04th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +4.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 170–4 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.