Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CessaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger singled to center, Hoerner scored.12–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 8Fairchild homered to center (401 feet), India scored.11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–5
- 8Hosmer doubled to center, Mancini scored, Wisdom to third.11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 8Wisdom doubled to left, Happ scored, Mancini to third.10–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 8Mancini grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Swanson scored, Bellinger out at second, Happ to third.9–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Mastrobuoni singled to left, Wisdom scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Gomes grounded into double play, second to first, Mancini scored, Hosmer out at second, Wisdom to third.7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Wisdom singled to center, Bellinger scored and Happ scored, Mancini to second.6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Mancini singled to center, Swanson scored, Bellinger to second, Happ to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 7Happ doubled to left, Hoerner scored, Swanson to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Hosmer singled to left, Wisdom scored, Hosmer to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Vosler homered to right center (444 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Fair odds
- CIN -113
- CHC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CHC: Hayden Wesneski (no track record yet) · CIN: Luis Cessa (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +25 Elo | CIN 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.013th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.59th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 170–1 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.