Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott singled to right, Marsh scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Sosa hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Marsh singled to right, Castellanos scored, Bohm to third.2–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 9Fraley hit sacrifice fly to center, Newman scored.2–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Steer homered to center (438 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +17 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 6.327th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −3.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.