Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Yuli GurrielBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Matt StrahmPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marsh homered to center (409 feet).3–15
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–15
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–15
- 7Pache singled to left, Stubbs scored, Stott to third.3–14
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–14
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–13
- 7Cooper singled to right, Berti scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.3–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–13
- 7Segura scored on Vasquez wild pitch, Berti to second on wild pitch by Vasquez.2–13
- 7Segura scored on Vasquez wild pitch, Berti to second on wild pitch by Vasquez.2–13
- 7Gurriel homered to left (366 feet).1–13
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–13
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 10–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–13
- 6Bohm homered to left center (440 feet), Schwarber scored and Castellanos scored.0–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 6Castellanos reached on infield single to shortstop, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.0–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 5Marsh doubled to right, Bohm scored and Castellanos scored.0–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 5Bohm reached on infield single to third, Schwarber scored, Castellanos to second.0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 5Castellanos singled to right, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- MIA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +18 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Matt Strahm: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +18 Elo | PHI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.7 | Runs scored | 3.326th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −2.428th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–14th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.