Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Realmuto doubled to left, Marsh scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 8Arráez singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored, Sánchez to second.8–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Chisholm Jr. tripled to center, Berti scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8Berti singled to center, Gurriel scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Arráez homered to left (358 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Stott singled to left, Castellanos scored and Harrison scored, Stott thrown out at first, Sosa to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Schwarber homered to right (375 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Fortes singled to center, Gurriel scored, Segura to second.4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Gurriel singled to left, Soler scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Fair odds
- PHI -110
- MIA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −3 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +3 Elo | PHI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.7 | Runs scored | 4.519th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.524th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −1.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–14th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.